Auto-cashout probability calculator
Auto cash out win chance calculator
- Win chance
- 48.5%
- Long-run return per ₱50.00 bet
- -₱1.50
- Win rate needed to break even
- 50.0%
Common targets (3.0%)
| Target | Win chance | About 1 in | Long-run return per ₱50.00 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20x | 80.8% | 1.24 | -₱1.50 |
| 1.50x | 64.7% | 1.55 | -₱1.50 |
| 2.00x | 48.5% | 2.06 | -₱1.50 |
| 3.00x | 32.3% | 3.09 | -₱1.50 |
| 5.00x | 19.4% | 5.15 | -₱1.50 |
| 10.00x | 9.70% | 10 | -₱1.50 |
| 100x | 0.97% | 103 | -₱1.50 |
This crash game probability calculator shows your win chance at any target in one click, plus the payout and the win rate you need at each multiplier. A ₱50 bet at 2x pays ₱100 in roughly half of all rounds.
The formula
For a crash game with RTP r, your win chance at target multiplier x is:
Win chance at x ≈ r ÷ x
Multiply the win chance by the payout and you get the RTP back: r ÷ x × x = r. It’s the same for every target. A low target wins more often and pays less, a high target wins less often and pays more. Pick the ride you like.
Break-even win rate
To break even when cashing out at x, you need to win 1 ÷ x of your rounds. The calculator shows this next to your real win chance, so you can see exactly where each target sits. Need help picking one? Read the fixed auto cashout strategy.
Frequently asked questions
What is the chance of reaching 2x in a crash game?
At 97% RTP, about 48.5%. At 99% RTP, about 49.5%.
What win rate do I need at 1.5x to break even?
You need to win 1 ÷ 1.5 = 66.7% of rounds. The game's actual hit rate at 1.5x at 97% RTP is about 64.7%, and that small gap is the 3% the game keeps.
By Daniel Foster · Crash Game Maths & Mechanics Analyst
Daniel focuses on the mathematics and mechanics behind crash games. His reviews examine RTP disclosures, volatility, multipliers, game mechanics and the mathematical principles behind different crash titles.
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