Fixed auto-cashout strategy: 1.20x, 1.50x and 2x compared

A 1.20x auto cash out wins about 81% of rounds. A 2x target wins about 48.5% and doubles your stake. This auto cash out strategy means betting the same stake every round and cashing out automatically at one chosen multiplier. It’s the simplest setup in our crash game strategy guide and our top pick for most players, because nothing escalates. The only question is which target suits your style.

Numbers in shillings, maths unchanged. We scale every example to a KSh 100 base bet and KSh 5,000 bankroll. Try the plan on Aviator in Kenya once you’ve run it through the simulator.

Win rate vs payout

Auto cash out win chance calculator

Target multiplier

House edge (%)

Win chance

48.5%

Long-run return per $10.00 bet

-$0.30

Win rate needed to break even

50.0%

Common targets (3.0%)

Target	Win chance	About 1 in	Long-run return per $10.00 bet
1.20x	80.8%	1.24	-$0.30
1.50x	64.7%	1.55	-$0.30
2.00x	48.5%	2.06	-$0.30
3.00x	32.3%	3.09	-$0.30
5.00x	19.4%	5.15	-$0.30
10.00x	9.70%	10	-$0.30
100x	0.97%	103	-$0.30

Comparing targets over 200 rounds

KSh 5,000 bankroll, flat KSh 100 bets, 97% RTP, 200 rounds, 10,000 sessions:

Target	Win rate	Median end	10th pct	90th pct	Bust rate
1.20x	80.8%	KSh 4,440	KSh 3,480	KSh 5,280	0%
1.50x	64.7%	KSh 4,350	KSh 3,150	KSh 5,700	0%
2.00x	48.5%	KSh 4,400	KSh 2,600	KSh 6,200	0.1%
5.00x	19.4%	KSh 4,500	KSh 500	KSh 8,000	9.8%
10.0x	9.7%	KSh 4,000	KSh 0	KSh 10,000	26.9%

The long-run cost at every target is 200 × KSh 100 × 3% = KSh 600, so the target you pick is all about style. The medians all sit near KSh 4,400, KSh 600 below the start, while the spread and the bust rate grow with the target.

Picking a target

• 1.20x–1.50x: long, calm sessions. Expect frequent wins and small, steady swings.
• 2x: the balanced middle, with clear swings but rarely a bust at 2% bets.
• 5x and up: lottery-style. Lower your stake, because long dry runs are normal.

Common mistakes

• Changing the target mid-session after a loss. That’s chasing. Stick to the plan you set before the session.
• Manual cash out “to beat” auto cash out. Reaction time and lag cost you, and the odds don’t improve.
• No stop rules. Fast rounds burn through a budget quickly. Use auto-bet stops. See our auto-bet settings guide.

For how this compares with progressions, see the Martingale vs Anti-Martingale vs fixed test.