D'Alembert vs Martingale in crash games: tested head to head
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D’Alembert vs Martingale is the classic “gentle vs aggressive” match-up: D’Alembert adds one unit after a loss, Martingale doubles. Step by step, D’Alembert is far kinder: after five losses Martingale wants £160, D’Alembert £30. But our 10,000-session test turned up a surprise. Over 100 rounds both ran dry about half the time, because D’Alembert keeps your stake raised for longer and ends up wagering more. Here’s the full comparison. Part of our crash game strategy guide.
How the stakes climb
£5 unit, 2x cash out:
| Losses in a row | Martingale next bet | D’Alembert next bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | £10 | £10 |
| 3 | £40 | £20 |
| 5 | £160 | £30 |
| 7 | £640 | £40 |
Martingale needs one win to recover everything plus £5; D’Alembert needs to win back the climb step by step. See the full walk-throughs in the Martingale strategy and the D’Alembert strategy.
Head to head: 10,000 sessions
£250 budget, £5 unit, 2x, 100 rounds:
| Martingale | D’Alembert | Flat betting | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median finish | £0 | £35 | £230 |
| Best 10% | £510+ | £505+ | £300+ |
| Ran dry | 50.2% | 48.8% | 0% |
| Avg. wagered | £1117.50 | £1662.50 | £500 |
The key line is “avg. wagered”. At a 97% RTP each £ wagered costs about 3 cents on average, so the system that bets most loses most over time, however gently it climbs.
Which should you pick?
If you love the idea of recovering losses, Martingale is honest about its risk: short, sharp, all-or-nothing. D’Alembert feels calmer but drifts. If you want calm that actually holds up, use flat betting or press wins with Anti-Martingale (1% ran dry). The full ranking: best betting system for crash games.
Test them yourself
The simulator below starts on D’Alembert; switch to Martingale and compare. Then take your pick to Aviator. Or practise in the free-play crash game.
Play smart: look at total wagered, not just wins. It’s the number that tells you what a system really costs.
Strategy simulator
- Median final bankroll
- Unlucky (10th percentile)
- Lucky (90th percentile)
- Chance of going bust
- Median max drawdown
- Average rounds played
Example: 1000 sessions of 100 rounds, bankroll £250, base bet £5, target 2x, 3% edge
| Strategy | Median final bankroll | Unlucky (10th percentile) | Lucky (90th percentile) | Chance of going bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Alembert | £155 | £0 | £505 | 44.9% |
| Fixed bet | £240 | £180 | £300 | 0.0% |
Run it a few times with different settings to find the approach that fits your bankroll and playing style.
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Frequently asked questions
Is D’Alembert safer than Martingale?
Per streak, yes: stakes rise far more slowly. Over a 100-round session our test found similar bust rates (48.8% vs 50.2%) because D’Alembert keeps stakes raised for longer and wagers more in total.
Which system recovers losses faster?
Martingale: one 2x win recovers all losses plus one unit. D’Alembert needs more wins than losses to recover.
Which wagers more?
D’Alembert in our test: about £1662.50 per 100-round session versus £1117.50 for Martingale and £500 for flat betting.
What’s a better alternative to both?
Flat betting or a positive progression like Anti-Martingale. Both kept sessions far safer in our test.
What target do they use?
2x, so each win and loss moves the balance by the same stake.
By Daniel Foster · Crash Game Maths & Mechanics Analyst
Daniel focuses on the mathematics and mechanics behind crash games. His reviews examine RTP disclosures, volatility, multipliers, game mechanics and the mathematical principles behind different crash titles.
Fact-checked by Alex Morgan
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