Crash game strategy simulator
Strategy simulator
- Median final bankroll
- Unlucky (10th percentile)
- Lucky (90th percentile)
- Chance of going bust
- Median max drawdown
- Average rounds played
Example: 1000 sessions of 100 rounds, bankroll Ksh 5,000, base bet Ksh 100, target 2x, 3% edge
| Strategy | Median final bankroll | Unlucky (10th percentile) | Lucky (90th percentile) | Chance of going bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale (double after loss) | Ksh 4,600 | Ksh 0 | Ksh 10,200 | 46.5% |
| Anti-Martingale (double after win, reset after 3) | Ksh 4,600 | Ksh 2,100 | Ksh 7,200 | 1.1% |
| Fixed bet | Ksh 4,800 | Ksh 3,600 | Ksh 6,000 | 0.0% |
Run it a few times with different settings to find the approach that fits your bankroll and playing style.
What the simulator does
Kenyan edition: results show in Kenyan shillings (KES). A good starting point is a KSh 5,000 bankroll with KSh 100 bets, the same 2% ratio our guides use. Ready for a real session? See M-Pesa deposits and the best crash games in Kenya.
You choose a bankroll, a base bet, an auto cash out target and a number of rounds. The simulator then plays that session hundreds or thousands of times with random crash points, using one of three systems:
- Martingale. Double the bet after every loss and return to the base bet after a win.
- Anti-Martingale (Paroli). Let winnings ride after each win, up to three wins in a row, then reset. Return to the base bet after a loss.
- Fixed bet. Bet the same amount every round.
How to read the results
- Median final bankroll. The middle session result. Half the sessions did better and half did worse.
- 10th and 90th percentiles. The unlucky and lucky ends of the range.
- Chance of going bust. The share of sessions where the bankroll fell below the base bet.
- Median max drawdown. The typical worst fall from a peak during a session.
The maths behind it
A crash round reaches a target x with probability about (1 − edge) / x. A bet that cashes out at x therefore returns, on average, (1 − edge) / x × x = 1 − edge per unit staked. That holds for every target and every bet size, so each strategy is really a choice about how your session feels: Martingale stacks lots of small wins, Paroli rides hot streaks and a fixed target keeps things steady. The simulator shows you that feel in numbers before you play.
Frequently asked questions
How does the simulator pick crash points?
It uses the standard crash distribution: crash = max(1, floor(100 × (1 − edge) / (1 − U)) / 100), where U is a uniform random number. At 97% RTP, about 3% of rounds crash instantly at 1.00x.
Why does Martingale look good in the median?
Martingale wins small amounts most of the time, so the typical session ends slightly ahead. The losses come from rare sessions that bust. The bust rate shows that hidden risk.
Can I match the RTP of my game?
Yes. Set the house edge field to 100 minus the RTP of the game you play. For example, 97% RTP means a 3% edge and 99% RTP means a 1% edge.
By Daniel Foster · Crash Game Maths & Mechanics Analyst
Daniel focuses on the mathematics and mechanics behind crash games. His reviews examine RTP disclosures, volatility, multipliers, game mechanics and the mathematical principles behind different crash titles.
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